As mattress makers gather in the Furniture Capital of the World this week for the fall edition of the High Point Market (my personal favorite), I welcome them to my hometown with good news.
Things aren’t as bad in Mattressville as they look.
That’s the assessment of a leading home furnishings analyst, and it’s one that I happen to share. More on my thoughts in a moment. First, let’s hear from Peter Keith, senior research analyst for Piper Sandler, whose work I have been following closely for several years.
In a recent report, Keith offered a quick take on the state of the mattress industry.
“Somnigroup International has recently quantified the mattress industry in Q2 at minus MSD% (mid-single digits) to minus HSD% (high-single digits), and we believe the International Sleep Products Association … placed Q2 at -7% year-over-year,” Keith wrote. “We question these figures—and believe they are overly negative – as they don’t accurately capture the sell-through of imports, and they don’t capture solid growth with some of the emerging brands in the industry (3Z, Saatva, Nectar, etc.)”
So there’s your good news tucked into a bundle of bad news. Those reports of industry declines for second-quarter business (the latest data available) are “overly negative,” in Keith’s view. And note that he sees evidence of “solid growth” in brands like 3Z, Saatva, and Nectar.
That’s a key point we should all keep in mind as the industry faces macro-headwinds. Even in tough times, there are winners. It’s worth taking a close look at how those brands are growing. One hint: They are savvy digital players.
Keith does acknowledge the difficult conditions in the mattress category these days.
“Industry sales trends are still weak after declining four straight years (2022-2025) and now potentially entering the fifth year of declines,” he said.
What does the industry need to get a boost?
“SGI believes the industry needs an improvement in consumer confidence/sentiment,” Keith wrote. “Closing rates at stores are strong, but the problem is getting people into stores. We note Consumer Sentiment, as quantified by the University of Michigan, sits near a 10-year low. Consumer Confidence is also down, but in less dramatic fashion.”
Keith said SGI “believes less ‘drama’ from dynamics such as tariffs and the Middle East conflict would be helpful.” Yes, it would.
He added: “The industry also needs to have effective and compelling advertising to drive interest.”
Unfortunately, that’s a rather long list of issues. The industry has endured a too-long string of yearly declines, retail traffic is down, Consumer Sentiment is down, tariffs and the Middle East conflict have created headwinds, and we need compelling advertising.
But, on the positive side, things aren’t as bad, number-wise, as they look, Keith asserts.
And now the mattress industry has the chance to have a positive market in High Point. That’s my game plan. What’s yours?
