History says mattress comeback is coming

This will be a growth year for the mattress category.

I join many senior bedding executives in making this prediction, and that is a pleasant prospect to bring us all encouragement as we head to the important Las Vegas Market later this week. But before you take this prediction to the bank, you might want to keep something in mind: We said the same thing last year, and that didn’t work out so well.

The final figures for 2025 are not in yet, but it looks like last year will mark the fourth consecutive year of industry declines in unit and dollar volume. Ouch!

The challenge in making mattress forecasts these days is that our industry is truly in uncharted territory. There has never been anything like the Covid-19 pandemic in our history, and it’s still uncertain what the “new normal” in the mattress industry really looks like.

But I’m pretty sure about this: The bedding industry will start growing again, at some point. It always has. At least that’s according to what we could call the “old normal.”

A look back at industry statistics published by the International Sleep Products Association reveals that the domestic industry has never suffered more than four consecutive years of mattress unit declines this century. U.S. producers saw only one four-year period of unit decline, from 2006 through 2009. The industry came out of that unit decline on a strong note, posting 6.2% mattress unit growth in 2010. During that same period, by the way, the dollar volume of domestic mattresses only declined twice — in 2008 and 2009.

The lesson: What goes down in mattress units and dollars does come back up.

That’s what I’m thinking as we begin Year Five in this current industry cycle. We simply must shake off the bedding doldrums at some point. Mattress demand has been constrained, and that can only continue for so long before people need new mattresses. New families are being formed, often with the need for a new mattress or two. Old mattresses are wearing out. Our population is growing. These are all good things for mattress sales.

I do acknowledge that the charged political climate could pose challenges for the economy this year. We will have to see how that plays out.

Meanwhile, here’s a nice thing to think about: pent-up demand. That phrase used to be a regular talking point when the industry hit a downturn. Now would be a great time for us to enjoy a wave of pent-up demand for mattresses.

Let’s hope for that in 2026. And let’s also hope for a strong Las Vegas Market. I’ll see you there shortly.