I joined the bedding industry full-time in mid-2023. It was an interesting time, as the industry was starting to recover from the COVID-19 era and supply chain shortages.
Since then, nearly every conversation I’ve had or story I’ve worked on has had the same underlying theme: When will things return to normal? Everyone’s crystal balls, for the most part, have gone cloudy.
But I think the answer increasingly is, they won’t. At least, not in the way the industry once knew it. The bedding industry is currently inside a chrysalis. Relatively soon, the “new normal” will emerge. For now, the transformation period is being defined by volatility.
Several macroeconomic factors are affecting day-to-day retail operations, including the Iran war and rising oil prices, foam shortages and price hikes, tariffs and inventory management, and consumers who are spending conservatively.
John Rainey, who runs the Sleep Shop inside Custom Home Furniture Galleries in Wilmington, North Carolina, is concerned about the foam shortages and how they’ll affect the business. In Rainey’s opinion, he thinks it’ll be worse for the industry than the COVID-19 pandemic. Although full repercussions have yet to play out, retailers expect disruption in prices and stock.
Ryan Farris, who owns the Oklahoma City-based Mattress King, which has six retail locations, described his company’s Q1 results as “a bit of a roller coaster.”
“On the sales side, the ‘spookiest’ element is the volatility,” Farris said. “We see massive swings where one day is silent, and the next is incredibly busy. These fluctuations make staffing and operational planning difficult, and we are working hard to maintain team morale through those quieter stretches.”
Advertising becomes more important
One way retailers are increasing foot traffic is by making larger investments in advertising.
Jacksonville Furniture Mart, a two-location retailer based in Jacksonville, Florida, is planning to invest more money in advertising.
“I’m trying to look for new ways to advertise,” said Sarah Cantor, co-owner of Jacksonville Furniture Mart. “We used to say we kept our prices low by not advertising.” But now the game has changed. Tariffs are affecting prices, and in turn, have reshaped Cantor’s buying strategy.
To combat an 8% decrease in foot traffic over Q1 2025, Farris has increased the company’s ad spend to 7.4% of sales. He previously aimed for a range between 5% to 5.5%.
“In this high-interest-rate environment, maintaining and increasing margins is the only way for independent sleep shops to survive,” Farris added. “While advertising often feels like a ‘black hole’ lately, it remains a necessity, and we are focused on achieving the lowest possible CPM.”
Trent Ranburger, owner of Trent’s Beds in Bowling Green, Kentucky, is known for his local advertisements. Lately, he’s been blanketing social media: Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat and X.
Farris has observed a broader trend shaping local performance.
“We are also noticing that both our e-commerce and in-store sales are becoming hyper-dependent on major holiday trends driven by (boxed bed) brands,” Farris added.
“When these brands ramp up spend for a holiday weekend and then abruptly cut back, we feel the impact immediately. I believe these massive fluctuations in national ad spend are a primary cause of the extreme ‘ups and downs’ we are seeing in local retail traffic.”
Adjusting to tariffs
Beyond advertising, retailers are also still dealing with ongoing cost pressures related to tariffs. Many retailers are being more aggressive in managing stock levels, which now require more planning than historically was needed.
At Jacksonville Furniture Mart, Cantor said her buying strategy is constantly evolving. Cantor is mulling over getting rid of certain brands because of increased prices and smaller margins. “People really want to feel like they’re getting a quality product for a price,” she said. With margins being squeezed, some products no longer make sense.
Altogether, these factors are leading to challenging environments but not necessarily un-navigable ones. One of independent retailers’ biggest assets is their ability to pivot quickly. Farris said he is currently in a “conserve mode” to protect the retailer’s gains. After ups and downs, the company ended the quarter up 4.7% overall. In February, Mattress King had a record-high month, with a 46.6% increase. Farris’ strategy for Q2 is to keep advertising spending high.
“We are setting our goals ahead of last year’s numbers and maintaining high stock levels to ensure we can fulfill every lead we get.”
After Q2 ends on June 30, I’ll check back in with retailers to see how these trends have evolved and report on what it signals for the remainder of 2026.
