With the mattress industry mired in a prolonged downturn, millions of units below peak shipment levels, bedding executives are now debating if a wave of pent-up demand for mattresses will lift the industry to a growth year in 2026.
Some say that pent-up demand is real and could help spark a comeback year for the category, if economic winds are favorable. But others aren’t so sure, saying that pent-up demand is more of a hope than a certainty.
King Koil CEO David Binke says the combination of pent-up demand and lower interest rates could spark a sales surge this year. “There could be a huge explosion of business with pent-up demand,” he said.
“Consumers do need to replace their mattresses,” noted Frank Hood, CEO of Kingsdown. He says a surge in business this year “could be pent-up demand,” or it could be the industry “getting back to normal rates of consumption.” Either way, that surge in business would be welcome.
Domestic mattress shipments have cratered in recent years, dropping from a peak of about 26.3 million units in 2021 to about 19.2 million units in 2024, the last year for which figures are available, according to the International Sleep Products Association. That is a decline of about 7 million units — a potential windfall for the industry if some or much of that lost business could be reclaimed. That’s what makes the current talk about unleashing pent-up demand so significant.
But the pent-up demand scenario has its doubters, chief among them Therapedic Worldwide CEO Gerry Borreggine. He chuckles at the talk about pent-up demand uncorking a torrent of business this year. He’s heard talk like that several times over the years when industry sales have been down for a protracted period, but says the predicted sales booms invariably fail to materialize.
“I’m not going to say that pent-up demand doesn’t exist,” Borreggine said. “It does, but not to the degree that people cite as they look at our loss of business. It is not as big an indicator as we hope it would be to predict future business.”
He characterized pent-up demand as “the mirage we all hope will appear year after year. Pent-up demand is a farcical term.”
Jim Nation, vice president of national sales for South Bay International, says the mattress industry has changed in recent years and it would be a mistake to hope for a wave of pent-up demand manifesting itself this year. “There is no pent-up demand,” he said. “It has been filled.”
Consumers have increasingly turned to new distribution channels and online mattress retailers to meet their mattress needs, thus bypassing traditional brick-and-mortar mattress retailers, Nation said. Consumers continue to need new mattresses and to buy them, he added.
But others say pent-up demand will boost sales in the coming months.
Denny Boyd, president of Boyd Sleep, says pent-up demand will spark good business growth this year “if tariffs are dropped. If not, business will only pick up slightly. Tariffs are impacting our consumers in a negative way.”
“I definitely think there is pent-up demand,” said Lou Paige, CEO of Englander. Some percentage of the millions in reduced mattress shipments in recent years will be regained by the industry, he predicted.
Kurt Ling, co-founder of Post+Lavish, also sees pent-up demand sparking business.
“I do think we will see pent-up demand for mattresses released this year,” he said. “But the real question is, what will open the floodgates for new business?” An improving housing market would spur more mattress purchases, he said.
Bill Hammer, president of Shifman, made a similar point.
“History would show that when there is improvement in the housing market, mattress sales track with that growth,” he said. “Therefore, we think that there could be a nice rebound if the macroeconomic conditions are right.”
“Real estate transactions create demand for mattresses,” said Bob Muenkel of UncleMuenkel, a sales training company serving the mattress industry and other industries. “When more bedrooms are available, there is a need for more beds or perhaps for a single new bed. That’s when the mattress industry rebounds in a big way. And that’s when you see pent-up demand.”
