Many in the mattress industry had success in 2025, but overall, it did not turn out to be a growth year. That could be different for 2026.
Talking to leaders in the industry, Bedding News Now has found that many are optimistic about the first quarter of 2026 and the potential the year holds.
“While the overall U.S. mattress market is forecast to finish 2025 down about 5%-5.5%, Diamond is outperforming the category by roughly 10 points, and we expect to extend that advantage by 5-10 points in 2026 as the industry returns to modest growth,” says Shaun Pennington, CEO of Diamond. “ISPA’s outlook shows the market rebounding in 2026 with shipments and value on the rise after 2025’s downturn, and we are uniquely positioned to benefit as tariffs settle, interest rates ease and consumer sentiment stabilizes.”
He adds that with consolidation among lower-end competitors and major groups like Somnigroup reshaping retail dynamics, independent retailers are increasingly turning to partners who deliver innovation, differentiation and real margin creation.
Eugene Alletto, CEO and founder of Bedgear, says he believes 2026 will be a growth year for the sleep industry, but it won’t be growth by default. It will reward brands and retailers that move beyond selling generic comfort and instead solve real sleep problems.
“Consumers are more educated, more intentional and far less tolerant of one-size-fits-all products,” he says. “At the same time, the industry is facing real challenges: too much sameness, too much promotion-driven thinking and not enough meaningful differentiation. When products all look and feel alike, trust erodes and margins suffer. The opportunity is clear for those willing to change course.”
He adds that the winners in 2026 will be the ones who shift from selling individual products to delivering personalized sleep essentials — solutions that account for body type, sleep position and temperature preference, and that prioritize airflow, breathability and long-term value.
“Retailers and manufacturers who invest in personal fit, consumer education and sustainability won’t just drive growth — they’ll earn loyalty in a category that desperately needs it,” he says.
Lou Paige, CEO of Englander, says there will be important opportunities in 2026, such as reinforcing the message about better sleep.
“Consumers today are better educated and more in tune with the critical importance of a good night’s sleep, and the positive impact it can have on their overall health,” he says. That is a very compelling selling point for everyone in our industry. We need to emphasize how the sleep system — mattress, foundation, pillow and sleep environment as a whole — facilitates a more restful sleep and its ability for more optimal performance.”
He also says there is significant potential for the growth of accessories. “With fewer door swings these days, the retailer must look to attach as much as they can to maximize their margin of realization on every ticket,” he says.
3Z Brands CEO John Merwin says that as long as brands and manufacturers continue to find opportunities to meet the consumer where they are, he believes things will trend upwards.
“We believe that the brands and retailers that gain share will be the ones that convert digital interest into real trust and real product differentiation,” he says. “The biggest challenges will continue to be broader economic conditions and a slower housing market, both of which influence when and how consumers shop for mattresses. At the same time, margin management will remain an important focus across the industry. Raw material costs, labor and logistics continue to shift, while consumers remain price-conscious. Companies that lack manufacturing control or supply chain flexibility will feel this the most.
Therapedic International CEO Gerry Borreggine echoes Merwin about the housing market, saying that with housing starts predicted to increase by more than 3%, according to new construction forecasts, along with anticipated reduction of interest rates in 2026, there are positive signs for the home furnishings industry overall.
“I believe that 2026 will be stronger than 2025 and momentum will build as the year progresses,” he says.
Bob Naboicheck, CEO of Goldbond, says the first half of 2026 will look better than the first six months of 2025, although it’s difficult to define what “better” means yet.
“What we can factor in is that we don’t expect to see the same whipsawing tariff news every day,” he explains. “Up, down, this country, that country, every day in the news last year was exhausting and caused the consumer to pause on higher-ticket purchases. We will see a new Federal Reserve chairman announced, who will undoubtedly be committed to reducing the Fed Funds Rate as a condition of their appointment. This should open the door to lower interest rates toward the end of Q2 and a boost in housing sales — new or existing — which always helps the sleep products industry. So, by ruling out some of the uncertainty of last year and some of the opportunities we see coming in 2026, it is fair to predict better performance for the industry.”
Frank Hood, CEO of Kingsdown, says the first quarter of 2026 is likely to feel more like the conclusion of 2025 — more of a reset than a fully developed rebound.
“We expect the first half of 2026 to show improved stability compared with the past two years,” he says. “While the pace will be tempered and likely slower than we would prefer, we are seeing enough leading indicators to believe a recovery is closer than it is farther away. We expect consumers to respond to market triggers — particularly interest rates — which should support modest improvement in housing turnover.
He adds that the recovery is unlikely to be linear, and pressure on conversion and margin discipline will continue as consumers remain value-conscious, even as economic confidence gradually improves.
“From a Kingsdown perspective, we believe our products positioned in higher-value segments with strong contribution margins will prove more resilient than entry-level offerings out of the gate in 2026,” Hood says.
