As Labor Day mattress sales continue around the country, the industry is expecting solid results from its most important selling event.
Those mixed results for July 4th mattress sales? Don’t worry about those, analysts say.
And look for more success with higher-priced mattress lines this Labor Day.
Exhibitors at the recent mattress-rich Las Vegas Market shared positive outlooks for the Labor Day holiday, which annually sees a major promotional push by producers and retailers. Consumers have long been told that Labor Day is a great time to buy a new mattress, and the industry’s intense focus on the category usually produces healthy sales results at this time of the year, exhibitors said.
The macro-climate for the mattress industry remains difficult, with a lackluster housing market, low consumer confidence, and geopolitical headwinds, but a leading analyst expects the Labor Day holiday to produce good results.
Peter Keith, senior research analyst for Piper Sandler, offered this take last week: “While the Street has recently soured on the mattress industry backdrop, we expect Labor Day weekend to be solid. Mattress sales have shown strength in 2026 during key selling periods (July 4th is not a key selling period), and other big-ticket home-related items have been recently showing improved sales trends.”
In an earlier report, Keith described the July 4th weekend as “sluggish” for mattress retailers, and classified it as “an anomaly” following solid Presidents’ Day and Memorial Day weekends.
The retailers represented in Piper Sandler’s monthly Mattress Retailer Survey are positive on their third-quarter outlooks, with 85% saying they expect year-over-year growth in that quarter. The respondents expect growth of a mean of 6%.
Analysts say the mattress industry continues to reflect a K-shaped economy.
“The price point divergence we have flagged since last summer has hardened, with contacts describing a K-shaped economy,” Zelman said in its report on the recent Las Vegas Market. “The affluent consumer is doing well, while the mid and lower ends are being squeezed by gas prices and higher summer utility bills. Entry-level and undifferentiated products are under the most pressure.”
Zelman said that second-half market improvement is “mostly hope or company execution. Several contacts expect a second-half improvement driven by new product launches, but none pointed to an inflection in market demand.”
Keith Hughes, a veteran analyst with Truist, said in his Las Vegas report that the mattress category is mired in “the deepest slump the mattress industry has ever seen.” He added: “The industry remains in a deep contraction for both units and dollars with higher-end price points showing resiliency which is reflective of the broader ‘K’-shaped consumer narrative.”
While the mattress industry used to be discussed in three price tranches – under $500, $500 to $1,000, and $1,000 plus – “the reality of the industry now is a large $500 and under online market, and a larger $1,500 plus domestically made segment,” Hughes said. “The mix shift has exacerbated the cost of this product and has pushed consumers to delay.”
With inflation eating into their incomes, low-end consumers have “really moved out of the market,” Hughes added.
