The bedding industry has only a 30% likelihood of ending its three-year sales slump this year, a Bedding News Now study reveals.
We asked bedding exhibitors and suppliers at the recent High Point Market to give us their confidential estimates of the probability that the industry will shake off its lingering recession and move into positive sales territory this year. We then averaged those percentages to arrive at our industry forecast number.
That 30% likelihood of growth this year, following years of challenging business conditions, offers a bleak outlook for growth prospects in 2025. But, and this is a key qualifier, it was based on the economic realities at the time, which included the imposition of triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods.
The Trump administration recently paused those sky-high China tariffs, a development that sent stocks higher — and roiled a slew of economic forecasts that must now factor in lower China tariffs, at least in the short term.
Still, we think it’s useful to look at the insights that we got from key industry players at the High Point Market.
Overall, the bedding execs we talked with in High Point were pessimistic about growth prospects in 2025. Only one executive we polled gave the industry a growth likelihood of greater than 50%; more than half of the estimates were in the 10% to 30% range. The most pessimistic estimate we received was that there is a zero percent chance of growth this year.
We asked for the forecasts on a confidential basis in the hopes that the executives would be free to share their honest assessments with us. Industry executives tend to be more optimistic when they are speaking on the record, I’ve found.
The bedding leaders that I interviewed at market shared candid opinions with me, describing a tough, frustrating business climate. They bemoaned the prospect of higher prices because of the imposition of steep tariffs, worried about sagging consumer confidence and lamented a sluggish housing market.
One exec speculated that the industry is down 8% to 10% in dollars so far this year. Another said he didn’t see any reasons for optimism about growth in the industry this year. “The pie is shrinking,” he said, gloomily.
That was the way things stood in late April at the High Point Market. But now, as we all know, there is a pause on those 145% China tariffs and industry leaders must now perform a new growth calculus.
Frankly, this is a tiring exercise. One analysis found that President Trump has issued new or revised tariff policies more than 50 times. The result is a massive dose of uncertainty, and uncertainty is a killer in the world of business. Growth plans can’t be built on foundations that are constantly shifting.
Will the bedding industry grow this year? I have my doubts. We are already into the fifth month of the year, and key economic indicators like consumer confidence are low. No one can predict how the overall economy will perform in the months to come in this topsy-turvy tariff climate.
But the bedding race goes on. I liked what one bedding leader told me at market. “I don’t worry about how the industry will perform,” he said. “I worry about outperforming the industry. Sometimes I think we concentrate too much on whether the industry will be up or down, instead of focusing on our market share.”
In uncertain times, especially, there are opportunities to gain market share. That’s the smart play for 2025.
